The Rise of Concert Films
How and why concert movies took center stage in 2023
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GM readers 👋,
Happy March!
First off, we had a great turnout for our Second Annual King Cake Raffle. Congrats to this year’s winner John D.!
Second, we have an exciting collaboration to announce! Several years ago a friend forwarded me a Twitter thread analyzing the origins of my hometown New Orleans’ hip-hop scene. I loved the analysis and have been following Trapital’s content ever since. If you’re not already familiar with their work, I suggest subscribing to their weekly newsletter and checking out their podcast, which has included interviews with industry thought leaders like Will Page, Matt Pincus, and Tatiana Cirisano.
So it’s a real honor to team up with Trapital’s founder Dan Runcie to take a closer look at the booming concert film genre. You can read the piece on Trapital’s site and subscribe to their newsletter here. I also recorded a podcast with Dan that you can listen to here.
Before diving into this month’s newsletter, I should admit that I don’t have much experience in the film industry. But it’s hard for me to quell my curiosity in the face of Taylor Swift’s film making over $200 million at the global box office, while only costing an estimated $10 to $20 million. Does she ever miss a shot? We’re going to analyze how concert films have performed historically, what seems to be driving their sudden resurgence, and speculate on where the genre might be headed in the future.
Finally, I’ve learned one thing over and over again while growing a newsletter. You need a team of smart folks to help you grow. With that in mind, a huge thank you to Cornell student Emily Yuan for helping research, write, and edit this piece!
And with that, on to the disclaimers…
Note: I write this newsletter to learn in public. I’m not a licensed investment professional. This piece is for informational purposes only. None of this is tax, financial, investment, or legal advice. Do your own research!
Now, let’s get after it!
Jimmy
The Rise of Concert Films
“As soon as I accomplish one goal, I replace it with another one. I try not to get too far ahead of myself. I just say to myself, 'All right, well, I'd like to headline a tour,' and then when I get there, we'll see what my next goal is.” - Taylor Swift
Back in college, a couple friends introduced me to Martin Scorsese’s film The Last Waltz. If you’re unfamiliar, the documentary covers rock group The Band’s farewell concert at Winterland Ballroom in San Francisco during the late 1970s. During the show, the group is joined by a number of legendary special guests, including Bob Dylan and Joni Mitchell. I loved the film. It introduced my teenage self to The Band’s music, and The Last Waltz’s soundtrack remains in my regular playlist rotation.
Concert films like The Last Waltz aren’t a new genre. Some of the earliest examples date back to the 1940s, with one of the earliest known productions being Concert Magic, which features violinist Yehudi Menuhin performing at the Charlie Chaplin Studios in 1947. While developing a concert film isn’t a new idea, 2023 was arguably the most successful year ever for this genre.
Two films – Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Renaissance: A Film By Beyonce – released last year topped the weekend box office charts in their respective opening weekends. According to Box Office Mojo, Swift’s Eras Tour and Beyonce’s Renaissance have grossed over $260 million and over $40 million, respectively, in theaters worldwide. These results put both movies in the genre’s all-time top 10, with Eras Tour becoming the number 1 grossing concert film in history, narrowly surpassing Michael Jackson’s 2009 posthumous documentary This Is It. And while it technically wasn’t a motion picture concert film, Elton John’s concert film Elton John Live: Farewell From Dodgers Stadium on Disney+ resulted in the artist winning an Emmy and granting him rarified EGOT status.
At the same time, Taylor Swift may be the most famous person on the planet as of 2023, and her film was “only” the 22nd highest grossing movie at the global box office last year. Compared to video game movie adaptations, The Eras Tour film wouldn’t even crack the top 10 grossing of all-time. So is this trend overhyped?
In this piece, we’ll try to answer that question by considering why music artists and Hollywood are interested in developing concert film projects. Next, we’ll explore which ingredients appear necessary to drive success in this genre. And finally, we’ll speculate on where this trend might be headed.
What is Driving the Rise of Concert Films?
Over the past couple of years, there has seemingly been increased interest and investment in motion pictures that showcase live musical performances. Let’s explore a few of the likely drivers of this trend from the point of view of two key stakeholders: the artist / rights holder and the distributor / film studio.
For artists & rights holders, there are several reasons to consider releasing a concert film, including:
It’s an alternative way for an artist to engage & retain existing fans and/or acquire new fans. Musicians releasing their IP in new formats to continuously engage with their audiences aligns with the transmedia entertainment trend. Leveling Up has written about transmedia storytelling in the music industry when we analyzed South Korean music company HYBE (linked here). As a reminder, transmedia storytelling is the telling of stories across platforms. For example, a story might originate in a comic book series and then be expanded through television, novels, games, films, and so on. The Marvel Cinematic Universe and Star Wars are typically highlighted as two successful franchises that have embraced transmedia storytelling. In music, HYBE has run this playbook consistently with its K-pop artists, releasing concert films (e.g., BTS Permission to Dance on Stage: Seoul, which grossed ~$33 million in gross box office sales), video games, webtoons, webnovels, and more. Similarly, for actively touring artists like Taylor Swift and Beyonce, releasing a concert film helps keep their content fresh in the minds of their fanbases. Meanwhile, for legacy artists, concert films can help rights holders re-engage their older fanbases and/or enable discovery by a new generation of fans (like my college experience with The Last Waltz). For example, film studio A24 re-released Talking Heads’ Stop Making Sense late last year. The film, originally released in 1984, grossed ~$5 million in theaters and contributed to the band’s internet search interest spiking (depicted below). According to the Hollywood Reporter, nearly 60% of the audience for Stop Making Sense’s opening weekend was under 35 years old, with many attendees not even born when the Talking Heads split up.
It enables artists to engage and monetize new demographics. Certain types of fans may prefer concert films versus watching live or streaming at home. For fans with less disposable income, concert movies can be an attractive alternative. Concert movie ticket prices can vary, but in general they are significantly more affordable than seeing a live concert. While it may be an extreme example, the ticket pricing for Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour concert films ranged from $19.89 for adults to $13.13 for children and seniors in the U.S. versus the average resale prices for The Eras Tour live concert reaching over $1,000 per ticket. The lower price enables fans who might not otherwise be able to pay for the live show to still enjoy the artist’s performance. Similarly, other demographics – including children, seniors, individuals with disabilities, and/or those impacted by geographic constraints – may find a movie venue much more accessible than a live concert. As one Taylor Swift fan put it, “It makes [The Eras Tour] accessible. Hopefully families with young children who can’t afford over £400 on tickets will take their kids to see this, and the little ones especially won’t particularly care that they’re not seeing it live.” At the same time, the concert film still enables an artists’ fans to share an in-person experience with other fans. This can get lost watching a concert at home on a streaming service. Along these lines, for The Eras Tour film, moviegoers were allowed to ignore typical big screen etiquette, with fans encouraged to dance and sing along to the film. Here’s a link to what dozens of Swifties going nuts at the movie looks like. Simply put, concert films can help artists extend their demographic reach.
It can be a catalyst for fans to engage with an artist’s music more often. Instead of cannibalizing consumption of an artist’s other IP, the data suggests that concert films may actually lead passionate audiences to consume even more of an artist’s content. According to Luminate, Taylor Swift, Talking Heads, and Beyonce all saw a meaningful increase in U.S. and global on-demand audio streams in the weeks after their films were released in 2023 (depicted below). That said, our review of Chartmetric data suggests that this uptick is somewhat transient, with consumption generally retrenching to prior levels 60 to 90 days after the film’s release.
It can be more lucrative now than ever. While the transmedia storytelling strategy is becoming increasingly popular, it’s fair to argue that it’s not really a new one. If we’re trying to understand the “why now” for concert film’s growing popularity, the deal Taylor Swift and her team struck to distribute The Eras Tour film is likely a key driver. In a novel move, Swift decided to partner with AMC Theaters directly to distribute her film rather than working with a Hollywood film studio. Beyonce also chose to partner with AMC directly for her film as well. As a result, both artists reportedly received an unprecedented 50% of ticket sales – a much higher split than the traditional creator / studio deal. For comparison, actor Tom Cruise reportedly received just over 5% of Top Gun: Maverick’s gross ticket sales, which is equal to ~10% of film studio Paramount’s ~50% split of gross sales after the theaters got their ~50% cut. By cutting out the studio from the split equation, the concert film genre becomes much more lucrative to artists. Swift’s film is estimated to have only cost $10 to $20 million, whereas major motion pictures can easily cost $100+ million to create. This means that Swift likely earned over $100 million on her 50% share of gross box office. And that’s before licensing the film to streaming services. In short, the partnership structure and the inherently lower cost of the genre enable artists to potentially earn substantial sums from successful concert film projects. Of course, a likely trade-off is that the artist’s production company likely takes on more economic risk if the film underperforms expectations. For projects with similar budgets (i.e., $10 million range) and splits (i.e., 50%), an artist likely needs to believe that they can produce a concert film that generates $20+ million (i.e., a top 10 concert film) to breakeven on gross box office revenue. Simply put, successful concert films are more lucrative for rights holders now than ever before due to innovative partnerships.
Development is relatively straightforward. Whereas it can take a meaningful amount of time – typically measured in years – to develop a major motion picture, concert films can be spun up in a matter of months. This helps reduce the effort and risk associated with creating them.
It is another form of artist expression. In addition to any commercial motivations, concert movies are also an opportunity for creative control and artist expression. For instance, Beyonce’s involvement in Renaissance as a writer, director, and producer illustrates a trend where artists are taking more creative control over their content. This level of control helps ensure that the film is an accurate representation of an artist’s vision. Meanwhile, many concert movies allow artists to document pivotal moments in their careers, serving as time capsules for fans. In this sense, fortuitous timing is also likely at play with the recent rise of concert films. Both Taylor Swift and Beyonce – generational talents – chose to showcase their talent and creativity at the same time. There is an element of chance (or perhaps strategic timing, coming during their world tours) for these two superstars to release their films in the same year. As a result, the happenstance may have allowed each film to garner greater momentum, existing as part of a “trend” rather than as standalone entities.
For distributors like AMC Theaters, there are also reasons to want more concert films in their theaters, including:
They increase the supply of new releases. This was particularly valuable last year, when Hollywood writers and actors were in a labor dispute. From May to September 2023, the Writers Guild of America (“WGA”) went on strike, contributing to the biggest interruptions to TV and film productions since COVID and the WGA’s second longest labor stoppage in history. Meanwhile, from July to November 2023, the American actors’ union, SAG-AFTRA, also went on strike, marking the group’s longest strike in history. These two work stoppages pushed several anticipated new films off their 2023 release schedules and are estimated to have cost Southern California’s economy as much as $6.5 billion. Viewed over a longer period of time, the number of new film releases appears to still be trending below pre-pandemic levels. According to Box Office Mojo, there were 587 films released at the box office in 2023 versus over 900 in 2019. For distributors, concert films provide compelling content for audiences that aren't reliant on the writers and actors of traditional narrative films. In this way, it helps distributors diversify the risk of new supply being released on time, which supports ticket and concession sales.
They diversify the type of content offered by movie theaters. By offering concert films of well-known artists, distributors can attract fans who otherwise might not go see a traditional film in theaters. As discussed above, one key benefit of seeing a concert movie is the shared experience with other fans. It may result in audiences coming back to the theater for a traditional film and provides incremental ticket and concessions revenue that might otherwise not be realized. Along these lines, global box office annual revenue is still estimated to be ~25% below its pre-pandemic high. Similarly, AMC Theaters annual revenue (depicted below) is slowly recovering but remains 20% to 30% its pre-pandemic peak. If we assume that AMC received 50% of The Eras Tour and Renaissance domestic gross box office sales, that is an incremental $100+ million of revenue (2.5% of their 2022 total sales) before any concessions or other sales are factored in. In short, experimenting with new types of content, like concert movies, can help drive more revenue to make up the industry’s road back to pre-pandemic heights.
The unit economics are potentially more lucrative than traditional films. While concert films have historically driven less revenue per film than say a blockbuster motion picture, distributors likely receive a higher percentage of every box office dollar. I am speculating here, but I imagine that theaters, like AMC, have more leverage when negotiating with an artist’s production company compared to a large Hollywood studio.
What Makes a Concert Film Successful?
With these drivers in mind, let’s look at some of the characteristics of successful concert movies. Admittedly, a film’s definition of “success” may vary. For higher budget projects – like The Eras Tour and Renaissance – it likely means tens of millions in gross box office revenue. For smaller projects and re-releases, it probably looks more modest. Nevertheless, here are some of the commonalities observed across the higher grossing concert movies:
The artists already have a dedicated and sizable fan base. Unsurprisingly, the all-time top 10 concert films have superstar artists involved. Similarly, the two largest films in the genre last year were from Taylor Swift and Beyonce – global superstars with large, dedicated fanbases. These fans help de-risk a project and are the primary audience for the concert films. Their enthusiasm and support can drive initial ticket sales and word-of-mouth promotion. Is there a rule-of-thumb for a minimum number of social media followers or monthly listeners? It’s tough to say. Interestingly, according to kworb.net, only four artists associated with the top 10 grossing concert films are in Spotify’s top 50 most streamed artists of all-time. That said, eight of the top 10 artists are in the top 100 most streamed artists of all-time. This suggests that artists who are popular on streaming services are likely going to have fans who come to a concert movie. It also points to a potential opportunity for a number of other popular artists, who have yet to develop a concert film.
The artists’ music is mainly associated with pop and/or rock genres. The top grossing concert movies overwhelmingly consist of pop and rock acts. It will be interesting to see if artists in other genres like hip-hop, Latin, and Country – which are successful on streaming services – experiment with bringing projects to the box office.
The concert films have high-quality visuals and sound. This helps make the film experience more visually and sonically engaging for audiences. For example, the Talking Heads’s Stop Making Sense re-release was reproduced in 4K resolution.
They are interactive. A key difference between releasing a movie in the box office versus streaming services is the opportunity to have a shared experience with other fans. Taylor Swift got this and leaned into it by encouraging her fans to interact, sing, and dance at the theater.
The movies offer something more than just the concert, such as behind-the-scenes footage, personal narratives, or thematic elements that offer a deeper insight into the artist’s world. These films aim to be authentic to the artist’s vision, while often offering a more intimate view of the artist’s world than a typical live performance. More than just a recording of a live event, successful concert movies serve as a bridge between the artist and audience, strengthening the fan-artist connection.
The release of the films should ideally coincide with significant milestones in the artist's career, thereby capitalizing on peaks of public interest. For instance, concert movies like BTS’s Yet to Come and the Band’s The Last Waltz marked the band’s last concert as a group. Meanwhile, The Eras Tour arguably marks a new pinnacle of Taylor Swift’s career, with fans celebrating her progression through various stages.
Where is the Genre Headed?
All signs point to the concert movie trend continuing over the next few years. On a recent earnings call, AMC Theaters CEO Adam Aron confirmed as much: “The phone has been ringing off the hook since we announced [The Eras Tour release]. A significant number of the world’s best artists would like to explore doing things with AMC.” From my perspective, it makes sense for pop genre artists like Ariana Grande, Ed Sheeran, and Billie Eilish to explore concert films. They have large, dedicated fan bases as well as the resources to execute Taylor Swift’s and Beyonce’s playbook of working directly with a distributor like AMC. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see top-charting artists in other genres – such as hip-hop (e.g., Drake), Latin (e.g., Bad Bunny), and Country (e.g., Morgan Wallen) – that haven’t historically been associated with top grossing concert movies release box office projects. From my perspective, a Latin music project would be particularly interesting because it is the only genre other than pop to have its on-demand video streaming market share far exceed its on-demand audio streaming market share. Simply put, consumers appear to enjoy watching Latin artists perform.
It will be interesting to see if the Majors look to get more involved in this area, perhaps by providing certain artists with the marketing and production services necessary to create and scale these films. On the other hand, it is not necessarily a core competency and they may not want to step on Hollywood’s toes. However, at the very least, providing the financing on more attractive terms seems like an opportunity if artists continue to bypass Hollywood film studios.
In addition, there is likely room for innovation in the space. We’ve started to see more projects utilizing AR / VR technology gaining traction. One notable example is ABBA Voyage, in which virtual avatars of the band ABBA perform with pre-recorded vocals and a live instrumental band for a 3,000 person audience seven days a week in London. [Check out a trailer of ABBA’s performance here.] According to Bloomberg, this show generates more than $2 million per week. Scaling this experience to thousands of movie theaters today seems unrealistic, given technical and financial challenges. But over time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more examples of this type of immersive experience that allow fans to feel like they are actually attending a live performance. It may be a particularly interesting application for older and/or deceased artists’ IP. For example, if you could get an artist like the Beatles to agree, I’d imagine they / their estates could make multiples of the ABBA show.
Closing Thoughts
In an increasingly crowded media landscape, artists and rights holders are exploring new formats to capture more of their fans’ attention, time, and ultimately share of wallet. The rise of concert films in 2023 is an avenue to implement this kind of transmedia strategy in film. Taylor Swift's The Eras Tour and Beyonce's Renaissance underscores how lucrative these projects can be in a success case. They also provide a blueprint for artists’ looking to release their own concert films. As a result, I expect that we’ll see growth in the genre over the coming years, providing fans with more experiences to interact with their favorite musicians and offering artists a new platform for creative expression and connection with their audiences.
Thanks to Emily, Hannah and Adam for the feedback, input, and editing!
Leveling Up’s work is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should always do your own research and consult advisors on these subjects. In addition, our work may feature entities in which Alderbrook Companies, LLC or the author has invested and/or has provided consulting services.
📚 Music Business, Tech, and Investing Content Worth Consuming
Here is some of the best content that I consumed over the past month or so –
Michael Ovitz - Knowledge is Power (Invest Like the Best: link)
Software Valuations, Earnings, Immigration (Bg2 Pod: link)
Bad blood over Singapore Taylor Swift Eras tour subsidies (BBC: link)
The music industry is going country, and so is Beyonce (Morning Brew: link)
With Label Layoffs, Will Artists Get Dropped? (Billboard: link)
Could YouTube be the music-first social platform the industry needs (MIDIA: link)
Why Warner Music Group Wants to Acquire Believe (Billboard: link)
WMG reveals plans to launch its own superfan-focused app (MusicAlly: link)
TikTok’s parent Bytedance has locked down AI-music patents in the US (MBW: link)
3 Observations on Universal Music Group’s $240M Bet on Chord Music (MBW: link)
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Jimmy- congrats on yet another very interesting piece! Keep up the great work!